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Headlines Today is 28/07/2014
WET TRACKERS NEEDED AT THE RANDWICK BOG [ More Items ]  
This is the Clifford Park track, which is looking in good order for their feature race of the year - the Weetwood Handicap - tomorrow night. The race is set to jump at 8.30pm and the forecast is for a possible shower or storm late tomorrow around South-East Queensland, so just monitor the weather.
11/04/14

It’s amazing the number of times in racing that rain will occur and ruin a Carnival day of racing. The wet weather scenario hit Golden Slipper day at Rosehill last Saturday and now it’s stayed on to again turn tomorrow’s Randwick meeting into “a bookmaker’s benefit”.

Huge fields are the order of the day at the Randwick meeting tomorrow in Races 3 (22 acceptors), Race 6 (18), Race 7 (21), Race 8 (22) and Race 9 (19). Even after scratchings, the last four races pose a major problem for punters trying to sort out the exotics like the Quadrella on all TABs and the Tattsbet Treble. I note some of these Quadrellas have jackpots on them, which is great, but the races are virtually impossible.

The only way to have success on these big days which are going to unfold on slow or heavy going is to know wet track breeding and to that end, last Saturday on the heavy 8 track at Rosehill, my Saturday Morning Mail clients got tipped Junoob (SP $4.40) and Flamberge (SP $10) in successive races and they got advised that the Golden Slipper had “only three possible winning chances” and two of the three ran the quinella. On Mossfun clients were told “Couldn’t keep up with Earthquake last start. I thought she is a chance of beating Earthquake on a slow or heavy track, so the track rating at the time of the race is all important”.

And to that end I reckon I have worked out the wet breeding for the Randwick meeting and I like betting on wet tracks as I fancy I can give my valued clients an edge in that regard. Since the Saturday Morning Mail service was launched a few years ago we rarely lose on a wet track. Clients following the suggested betting advice had no option but to win good money last Saturday and they also won the Saturday before, so tomorrow we are going for three winning Saturdays in a row on wet tracks.

Racing Queensland Cadet Handicapper Sam Watson has sent the scaled weights through for Doomben tomorrow and they read: Race 2 + 4kgs, Race 3 + 1kg, Race 4 + 1.5kg and Race 6 + 2.5kgs.

The apprentice jockey weights today should be:

JOCKEY

WEIGHT

Luke Tarrant

48 claims 3kgs

Tegan Harrison

50 claims nil

Travis Wolfgram

54 claims 3kgs

Samuel Payne

53 claims 3kgs

Rikki Jamieson

50 claims 3kgs

Priscilla Schmidt

51 claims 2kgs

Kirk Matheson

52 claims 1.5kgs

Janette Johnston

53 claims 3kgs

Ashley Butler

54 claims 2kgs

Anthony Allen

50 claims 1.5kgs

Michael McGuren

55 claims 3kgs

Today on www.brisbaneracing.com.au I preview Doomben Race 7. On www.sydneyracing.com.au I preview Caulfield Race 4, whilst on www.melbourneracing.com.au Matt Nicholls gives his thoughts on the weekend racing.

The Postman sent his thoughts through on tomorrow and they read:

Randwick plays host to the first day of The Championships tomorrow and I think The Offer is the best bet of the day in the Chairman's Handicap over 2600m. I've been a fan of this imported gelding by Montjeu since his emphatic win in the Ballarat Cup last November on a bog track. He showed me that day he was a stayer of some promise and this prep he has progressed very well en route to next week's Sydney Cup. First-up The Offer was run off his legs over 1400m, but still finished his race off well behind Ecuador. Next start over 2000 metres he was posted three wide most of the way, yet still battled on very well in the straight to finish third behind Junoob. Last start The Offer ploughed through the heavy going @ Rosehill to win in the Manion Cup over 2400m, easing down to win with ridiculous ease.

Tomorrow The Offer gets everything in his favour again for mine and I think he will take a power of beating. Firstly, the step up to 2600m holds no fears. He's a proven wet tracker and with the track likely to be in the heavy 8 range, this will suit perfectly. He's drawn barrier one, which will allow Tommy Berry to get a cosy run behind Tremec with a smother. Although The Offer meets a few of these worse off @ the weights for trouncing them last start, however I have no concern with that, as the win was totally dominant. The Offer also looks to me like he has plenty more to give this prep and tomorrow looks the perfect race and the perfect time to progress his rating even further.

Of the others in the market, I think Sertorius will race well dropping back from WFA, but he had every chance in the Ranvet and had a tough run last week. The seven day backup worries me. Epingle represents value in the race and he will race well stepping back up in distance, but I can't see him troubling The Offer for the major prize. Tremec will lead & battle on well, but I just cannot back that stable in anything - ever. The rest just aren't up to it for mine.

The Offer opened around $3.3 with most agencies, which I think is a good price. I have The Offer marked 7/4 or $2.75. I'll be betting up.

Randwick 4-3 The Offer.

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